In real life the actual landing spot can be as small as 20 miles North or South to make a huge difference...Regarding surge, nice summary from the WSJ of the $64 question:
“If the hurricane passes to the north of Tampa Bay, its counterclockwise rotation could send a surge of up to 12 feet into the mouth of Tampa Bay, threatening the region’s 3.2 million residents.
If the hurricane passes to the south of Tampa, its rotation could blow water from the bay. Such a reverse storm surge occurred in September 2022 during Hurricane Ian, dropping the bay by 7 feet and stranding boats on mud flats.”