Barnwell picks five NFL teams set to improve: Could the Patriots make the playoffs?
Record in 2023: 11-6
Point differential in 2022: plus-77
2023 record in games decided by seven or fewer points: 4-4
Projected strength of schedule, via ESPN's FPI: Eighth easiest in the league
In some ways, the Chiefs don't really fit on this list. The improve side of this column usually includes teams with subpar records from the previous season, since having bad luck or timing often results in teams losing lots of games. Andy Reid's team had a perfectly normal record in one-score games, and its point differential would have projected it to produce 10.8 wins, which isn't far off from where it ended up in reality during the regular season.
Instead, there are other factors under the hood for Kansas City that lead me to project a jump past 11 wins this season. Since we were just talking about the Commanders and their turnover margin, let's start there. With the greatest quarterback on the planet and an elite defense, the Chiefs somehow managed to post a minus-11 turnover differential, the league's fifth-worst mark.
Patrick Mahomes & Co. actually lost the turnover battle in nine of their 17 games, going 4-5 in those matchups. As a subtraction wizard, I can tell you they managed a 7-1 record in the games in which they tied or won the turnover battle. They lost the turnover battle only once during their four playoff games, with that coming in their narrow
road win over the Bills when
Mecole Hardman fumbled away a would-be touchdown.
With Mahomes under center, losing the turnover battle hadn't been a regular occurrence. Between 2018 and 2022, the Chiefs trailed their opponents in turnover margin 26 times, the fourth-lowest rate for any team, and one that amounts to about five games per season. They went 15-11 in those games, which is a testament to how they can overcome mistakes, but they were 15-5 when they tied the opposing team in turnovers and a whopping 34-2 when they posted a superior turnover margin. I don't see any reason to believe Kansas City is going to be as likely to lose the turnover battle as it was a year ago, and that should bump up its record in the process.
Some of that was bad luck. While holding on to the football and forcing fumbles are skills, what happens once the ball hits the ground is mostly a crapshoot. There were 43 fumbles in Chiefs games last season, and they managed to recover just 18 of those. That's a recovery rate below 42%, which was the fourth lowest of any team. Again, fortunes changed in the postseason: Kansas City recovered 13 of 18 fumbles, good for a 72.2% clip.
Then there were those drops. Sometimes those led to turnovers, and the turnovers led to defeats:
Kadarius Toney's drop in the opening game
against the Lions turned what should have been a completion into a pick-six for rookie safety
Brian Branch. Chiefs wideouts posted a 7.8% drop rate during the regular season, the worst rate for any team's wideouts in any season over the past decade. Compared with every other wide receivers room from every other team over that stretch, Kansas City's drop rate was 3.5 standard deviations above the mean. The receivers were scandalously bad.
And yet, during the postseason, things were better! Those same wideouts dropped just 3% of the passes thrown in their direction, which was exactly the league average during the playoffs. Even given that the Chiefs weren't exactly loaded at wide receiver, that sort of drop rate was never going to keep reoccurring, and once it fell back to earth, they looked much better on offense.
The 2024 team should be better at wide receiver, even with
Marquise Brown already sidelined by a
shoulder injury.
Rashee Rice will be entering his second season after impressing across 622 snaps a year ago, and first-round pick
Xavier Worthy should be a higher-ceiling option than the departed
Marquez Valdes-Scantling. There should be fewer snaps in the big picture for Toney,
Skyy Moore and
Justyn Ross, who might not be much better than replacement level.
The added speed should help restore a deep passing attack that went absolutely silent last season. Mahomes had ranked in the top 11 in deep passing QBR each of his first five seasons as Kansas City's starter. He fell to 27th in 2023. The only quarterback with a worse completion percentage over expectation (CPOE) on deep throws was
Mac Jones. If you think Mahomes' true talent level on deep throws is right alongside that of
Sam Howell and
Bryce Young, well, I'm inclined to disagree.
The offense should be better. And although the defense won't have cornerback
L'Jarius Sneed after he was
traded to the Titans, the Chiefs had the league's second-youngest unit a year ago and ranked fifth in the NFL in EPA allowed per play. Even if the Sneed-less secondary takes a step backward, improvements on offense and better fumble luck should help Kansas City push toward the top seed in the AFC.
